Introduction
The Karabakh War, as a historical, military, and humanitarian event, has profoundly affected the South Caucasus region. It dates back to the collapse of the Soviet Union, but reached its peak during the 2020-day war of 44. This article will attempt to summarize the history of the conflict, its causes, main stages, outcomes, and possible future scenarios, based on real facts and analysis.
Historical Background
The historical affiliation of Nagorno-Karabakh
Nagorno-Karabakh, historical Artsakh, has historically been inhabited by Armenians. At various times, it was part of Armenian kingdoms, khanates, and the Russian Empire. During the formation of the USSR, Nagorno-Karabakh was incorporated into Soviet Azerbaijan as an autonomous region, despite being predominantly Armenian-populated.
The Soviet years
During the Soviet years, artificial stability was established in the territory, but among Armenians the desire for unification with Armenia persisted. In 1988, the Armenian population of Karabakh began to demand unification with Armenia, which became one of the triggers for the start of the conflict.
First Karabakh War (1988-1994)
A long series of armed clashes began in 1988, escalating into a full-scale war. The war ended in 1994 with a ceasefire, as a result of which Armenian forces established control over the Nagorno-Karabakh Autonomous Region and seven surrounding regions.
Results of the war
- Control of Artsakh passed to the Armenian side
- Hundreds of thousands of refugees from both Azerbaijan and Armenia
- No clear political solution was reached.
Domestic political developments and impasse
After 1994, the negotiation process continued under the auspices of the OSCE Minsk Group, but no serious progress was made. The authorities of Armenia and Azerbaijan adopted tough and often contradictory approaches at different times.
The Second Karabakh War: The 2020-Day War of 44
The beginning of the war
On September 2020, 27, a new large-scale war began, which lasted until November 9. This war was significantly different from the first, in its applied technologies, espionage and drones, as well as Turkey's support for Azerbaijan.
Main combat phases
- Attack from the South: Fizuli and Jabrail
- The strategic capture of Shushi
- The shelling of Stepanakert
- The collapse of the Armenian defensive front
Casualties and humanitarian crisis
- The death toll reaches thousands.
- Tens of thousands displaced
- Humanitarian issues: medical, housing, psychological
The Third Party Decree of November 9
Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Russia signed a trilateral decree, according to which:
- Russian peacekeepers deployed in Artsakh
- Armenia ceded Fizuli, Aghdam, Kelbajar, Lachin and other regions
- A new balance of power has been established in the region.
The Results of the War and the Current Situation
Political changes in Armenia
After the war, mass protests began in Armenia. After the war ended, Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan's government came under pressure, but he regained his mandate by winning snap elections.
Russia's role
Russia effectively became a mediator in the conflict, deploying its troops as peacekeepers, but its neutrality is now being challenged.
Turkish influence
Turkey continues to support Azerbaijan and expand its geopolitical influence in the South Caucasus.
The Consequences of the War for Armenians
Social and psychological consequences
- Loss of trust in state institutions
- Rethinking Armenian identity and value system
- A process of national grief and reappraisal
Public safety
The security of Armenians living in Artsakh remains extremely uncertain. In the post-war period, incidents such as murders, provocations, and road closures have been frequently recorded.
International Relations and the Role of the UN
The UN and other international organizations issued general statements, but had little practical impact. The European Union attempted to organize a diplomatic process, but without significant results.
Vision of the Future
Is permanent peace possible?
Given the historically rooted issues, the question is whether a just peace is possible. This requires:
- New thinking in the societies of Armenia and Azerbaijan
- Restoring trust
- Providing international guarantees
The future of Artsakh's status
The Armenians of Artsakh continue their struggle for self-determination despite the complexities of international law. Possible scenarios include:
- Autonomy within Azerbaijan (impossible at present)
- International recognition (difficult to obtain)
- Permanent status quo under the auspices of Russian peacekeepers
Conclusion
The Karabakh war was not just a military conflict: it exposed deep regional contradictions, social problems, and the struggle for survival of the Armenian people. Today, more than ever, a clear strategy, unity, and active work with the outside world are needed to keep Artsakh Armenian and ensure a dignified peace in the region.
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